Nearly Half of US Jobs Will Be Lost to Computers

More recent news pointing to the urgent need for creativity and innovation:

I reported earlier on economist Tyler Cowan’s description of the disappearing middle class.  He predicts future income will becoming increasingly polarized between the truly talented, creative thinkers who can leverage complex technology to become more productive and the rest of the workforce who will be relegated to lower level service jobs–the 15% versus 85% phenomena.

From MIT’s Sloan School of Management, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee  convincingly argue “that impressive advances in computer technology—from improved industrial robotics to automated translation services—are largely behind the sluggish employment growth…[and they] foresee dismal prospects for many types of jobs as these powerful new technologies are increasingly adopted not only in manufacturing, clerical, and retail work but in professions such as law, financial services, education, and medicine.”

A new report out of Oxford (yes, The Oxford) adds shocking data to this narrative.  According to researchers at Oxford Martin’s School:

MIT Technology Review: “”The authors believe this takeover will happen in two stages. First, computers will start replacing people in especially vulnerable fields like transportation/logistics, production labor, and administrative support. Jobs in services, sales, and construction may also be lost in this first stage. Then, the rate of replacement will slow down due to bottlenecks in harder-to-automate fields such engineering. This “technological plateau” will be followed by a second wave of computerization, dependent upon the development of good artificial intelligence. This could next put jobs in management, science and engineering, and the arts at risk.

Our findings imply that as technology races ahead, low-skill workers will reallocate to tasks that are non-susceptible to computerization—i.e., tasks that required creative and social intelligence,” the authors write. “For workers to win the race, however, they will have to acquire creative and social skills.””

When leading researchers in different fields begin drawing the same conclusion from different angles, perhaps we should listen….